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    首席分析師:歐元、英鎊、日元及澳元日內走勢預測
    出處:        時間:2019-06-13  

      周三(6月12日)亞市盤中,市場風險情緒略偏謹慎,投資者聚焦貿易問題和經濟數據,今晚將公布的美國CPI數據令投資者保持高度警惕。

      日內中國公布的5月居民消費價格指數(CPI)和工業生產者出廠價格指數(PPI)數據與預期一致。中國國家統計局周三公布,5月CPI同比上漲2.7%,該漲幅創2018年2月以來的最高,當時為2.9%。數據并顯示,5月PPI同比上漲0.6%,與預期一致。

      接下來投資者將目光轉向晚間的美國CPI數據。整體通脹率料略下滑至1.9%,核心通脹率料持穩于2.1%。

      美聯儲決策者將于6月18-19日開會,目前正值貿易緊張局勢升級,美國經濟放緩,5月就業增長大幅下降,促使市場押注2019年底前美國至少降息兩次。

      利率期貨顯示,美國最早7月降息的可能性約有80%。不過這可能隨著今日稍晚的美國消費者物價指數(CPI)表現而發生變化。

      針對歐元英鎊、日元及澳元走勢,FXStreet首席分析師Valeria Bednarik撰文進行分析預測,內容如下:

      歐元/美元

      外匯天眼從技術角度來看,4小時圖上的20期均線已經成為日內動態支撐,這令回撤勢頭遭到考驗。

      盡管該匯價的整體圖形依舊看漲,但4小時圖上的動能指標已經轉向向下,而RSI指標正在接近超買區域,暗示歐元可能缺乏突破上周高點的動能,至少短期內是如此。

      若歐元突破上述水平,那么下一阻力則看向200日均線1.1366美元以及1.1460水平。

      相反,若歐元跌至1.1290下方(1.1107/1.1347升勢的23.6%斐波那契回撤位),將會給歐元帶來壓力,下一目標看向1.1210/1.1190水平,這是不同支撐聚集區域。

      支撐位:1.1290 1.1255 1.1190

      阻力位:1.1350 1.1365 1.1400

      英鎊/美元

      獲悉從技術角度來看,英鎊/美元成功擺脫短期看空壓力,短期技術指標顯示出更多積極跡象。

      不過,英鎊仍需要重拾4小時圖的100期均線1.2825水平來獲得深度反彈至1.2900的機會。

      下行方面,失守1.2650水平則英鎊可能測試支撐位1.2560水平。

      支撐位:1.2650 1.2610 1.2560

      阻力位:1.2760 1.2800 1.2825

      美元/日元

      4小時圖上的技術指標帶來略為積極的立場,因價格保持在20期均線上方,該匯價已經失去看漲動能,不過動能指標暗示向上,而RSI指標持穩于中線上方。

      美元/日元需要突破至108.80美元上方,來挑戰下一阻力區域109.10,該位是4小時圖上的100期均線,進一步看向200期均線109.80水平。

      該匯價只有跌至107.90下方,風險才轉向下行,之后可能加快跌向107.50水平。

      支撐位:108.25 107.90 107.50

      阻力位:108.80 109.10 109.80

      澳元/美元

      從技術角度來看,澳元的短期前景依舊略微看空,動能指標和RSI指標跌至中線下方,價格繼續徘徊在4小時圖的200期均線附近。

      澳元短期支撐位于20期均線0.6930水平,跌破這一水平可能加快跌至5月末低點0.6900,進一步支撐位于0.6865。

      上行方面,澳元需要重拾100日均線0.7067水平來緩解負面基調,并嘗試漲向0.7120水平。

      支撐位:0.6930 0.6900 0.6865

      阻力位:0.7020 0.7070 0.7120

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