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    美聯儲已難遏制衰退?大摩:即便今夏降息也為時已晚!
    出處:        時間:2019-06-12  

      上周末疲弱的非農就業報告,增加了市場對美聯儲降息的預期。不過,摩根士丹利周一(6月10日)警告稱,美聯儲降息或為時已晚,即便最終在7月降息,但也可能已無法遏制經濟放緩乃至衰退。

      上周五公布的美國5月非農就業數據僅新增7.5萬人,遠弱于市場預期的18萬,根據CME Group的FedWatch Tool最新數據,利率期貨交易商目前預計美聯儲月降息的機率超過了80%。

      摩根士丹利分析師Michael Wilson周一在給客戶的一份報告中表示,由于經濟已面臨一些“極為現實的宏觀風險”,包括就業數據疲弱、通脹率低迷,以及貿易緊張局勢升級,美聯儲降息料難以阻止經濟的下滑勢頭。

      Wilson警告,投資者對美聯儲寬松貨幣政策的熱情是可以理解的,然而,如果美聯儲基于擔憂我們進入真正的失業周期而降息,這種舉措是不可取的。

      Wilson目前已將全球經濟增長預測修正為“停滯”,而非“持續復蘇”。

      值得一提的是,就近期各家投行發布的預測看來,在過去的6個月,摩根士丹利已成為華爾街最悲觀的銀行。Michael Wilson在5月底時曾警告說,收益率曲線倒掛實際上情況更為嚴重,因此市場的“波動性將加劇。”

      而到6月,Wilson的警告已經蔓延到整個摩根士丹利。摩根士丹利首席經濟學家Chetan Ahya也指出:“摩根士丹利已經發出警告,若全球緊張局勢進一步惡化,全球經濟周期將面臨風險,全球經濟可能在三個季度后陷入衰退。”

    (文章來源:環球外匯網)

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